Diabetes 2019: Risk Probability of Kidney Complications Resulting from Chronic Diseases (Math-Physical Medicine) - Gerald C Hsu - EclaireMD Foundation, USA


Introduction: The author, who has type2 diabetes (T2D) for 25 years, is a research scientist on chronic diseases. He has endured many complications from T2D involving kidney, bladder, foot ulcer, and five separate cardiac episodes. In this paper, he focuses on investigating the risk probability of having kidney complications.

Methods: Instead of using traditional biology and chemistry, he utilized mathematics, physics, engineering modelling, and computer science to conduct his research. He has spent 20,000 hours and collected and processed~1.5M data during 2010-2018. He built up a baseline model, including genetic (unchangeable conditions) and semipermanent factors such as weight, waistline, bad habits (hard to change conditions). He then applied his collected ~80,000 data of chronic disease conditions, during the past eight years, to calculate their contributions to kidney complications, including glucose, blood pressure, kidneys, glomeruli, bladder, urinary tract, etc. Finally, to make his last but most important part of the calculation, he used lab-tested data of albumin, creatinine, and ACR during the past seven years. After combining these three parts, he obtained an annual percentage of having kidney complications resulting from chronic diseases.

Results: Key data in 2010: Glucose- 280mg/dL AIC- 10% ACR- 116.4 Kidney Risk Probability 57% Key data in 2018: Glucose- 115mg/dL AIC- 6.5% ACR- 14.6% Kidney Risk Probability 34% As shown in Table 1, Figures 1 and 2, detailed data and graphics illustrate the reduction of his kidney complications.

Conclusion: his investigation does not focus on kidney data alone. His main purpose is to study the relationship between chronic diseases, especially T2D, and kidney complications from a larger pool of associated data.

Author(s): Gerald C Hsu

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